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TOV Forums > General Talk > > Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach

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notyper
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Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 15:40
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DCR wrote:
CarmB wrote:
ICE tech is going to be phased out.


How many decades we talking here? If you look at other industrial advancements, the ICE tech is doing pretty good at keeping itself around with not much knocking it off the perch in the US at least. The infrastructure is gigantic, the business built around it is massive, and disrupting that is going to take a lot more than a few electric car companies.



Not to mention that ICE tech is still the best option for rapid refueling and long trips, which is a big deal everywhere west of the Mississippi River (and probably much of Canada too).

One thing I rarely see discussed is that current (and near term) BEV options tend to do best where mass transit (rail/bus/etc) also do well. Short commutes in high traffic areas. The more your city's density and mass transit resemble a place like New York, the more redundant BEVs are.

So BEVs are pinched on one end by the need for long range and quick refueling, and on the other by easier/cheaper/quicker mass transit options. Maybe the middle is broad enough, but I still think that barring massive battery/charging improvements, pure BEVs will be pigeonholed in the long term. And yes, we've been hearing promises of revolutionary breakthroughs in capacity and charging time for decades, but the reality is still proceeding much like any old tech (and batteries, regardless of chemistry improvements are old tech) - slow and incremental.

SC

superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 15:40
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CarmB wrote:

Yet ICE tech will lose ground simply because it is inherently inferior from the perspective of the end user.


A fellow at work has a Nissan Leaf with only a 150 mile range.
Looks like an appliance.

From my end user perspective, I don't feel like ICE tech is inherently inferior, for the forseeable future.

NealX
Profile for NealX
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 15:41
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Choice of plastics will be the big differentiator from the GM version.
CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 19:06
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superchg2 wrote:
CarmB wrote:

Yet ICE tech will lose ground simply because it is inherently inferior from the perspective of the end user.


A fellow at work has a Nissan Leaf with only a 150 mile range.
Looks like an appliance.

From my end user perspective, I don't feel like ICE tech is inherently inferior, for the forseeable future.



Hmm. So the early Leaf is the best we can expect from BEVs?

Good luck with that. For many decades numerous automakers have toiled at refining ICE-based designs. I wonder how much better they can get. What we can assume is that the complexity associated with ICEs is unavoidable. Oil changes. A cooling system. Transmission technology. All pretty much unavoidable. At best fuel efficiency can be improved to some extent but we're likely talking incremental improvements delivered at a snail's pace. Meanwhile BEV range is improving at a significant rate, not to mention that there are fuel cell vehicles under development that would address range anxiety while delivering many of the benefits of going electric. On top of which there is little chance of ICEs ever delivering full torque at launch.

As for the Leaf being rather frumpy, that's because it's a Nissan. There is nothing related to employing electric motors that means a vehicle has to be appliancesque. I would say the chances of electrics replacing ICEs would be zero if the early Leaf was the best we could expect. It's more likely the worst we're going to see going forward.

Every three, four years will likely see significant improvements whereas with ICEs it's more or less what you see is what you get. Smallish improvements every couple of model of generations. As such alternatives to ICEs will outpace the technology relatively soon. The cost of fuelling a BEV vs. an ICE is already ridiculously lower and that means long before non-ICEs come down in price to be at par with ICEs, they will make more sense in terms of cost. Long-term, simple is better, and electrics have far fewer bits and pieces associated with them on account of there are fewer negatives that require measures to counteract them. It means that as these vehicles age there is less to go wrong because there is simply less involved.

We've gotten used to using ICEs because they were the only game in town but we've had to go to a lot of trouble to compensate for the technology's ample flaws. Eventually all that compensating will be rendered unnecessary.


superchg2
Profile for superchg2
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 19:26
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CarmB wrote:
superchg2 wrote:
CarmB wrote:

Yet ICE tech will lose ground simply because it is inherently inferior from the perspective of the end user.


A fellow at work has a Nissan Leaf with only a 150 mile range.
Looks like an appliance.

From my end user perspective, I don't feel like ICE tech is inherently inferior, for the forseeable future.



Hmm. So the early Leaf is the best we can expect from BEVs?

Good luck with that. For many decades numerous automakers have toiled at refining ICE-based designs. I wonder how much better they can get. What we can assume is that the complexity associated with ICEs is unavoidable. Oil changes. A cooling system. Transmission technology. All pretty much unavoidable. At best fuel efficiency can be improved to some extent but we're likely talking incremental improvements delivered at a snail's pace. Meanwhile BEV range is improving at a significant rate, not to mention that there are fuel cell vehicles under development that would address range anxiety while delivering many of the benefits of going electric. On top of which there is little chance of ICEs ever delivering full torque at launch.

As for the Leaf being rather frumpy, that's because it's a Nissan. There is nothing related to employing electric motors that means a vehicle has to be appliancesque. I would say the chances of electrics replacing ICEs would be zero if the early Leaf was the best we could expect. It's more likely the worst we're going to see going forward.

Every three, four years will likely see significant improvements whereas with ICEs it's more or less what you see is what you get. Smallish improvements every couple of model of generations. As such alternatives to ICEs will outpace the technology relatively soon. The cost of fuelling a BEV vs. an ICE is already ridiculously lower and that means long before non-ICEs come down in price to be at par with ICEs, they will make more sense in terms of cost. Long-term, simple is better, and electrics have far fewer bits and pieces associated with them on account of there are fewer negatives that require measures to counteract them. It means that as these vehicles age there is less to go wrong because there is simply less involved.

We've gotten used to using ICEs because they were the only game in town but we've had to go to a lot of trouble to compensate for the technology's ample flaws. Eventually all that compensating will be rendered unnecessary.



He bought it last fall brand new.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 19:39
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notyper wrote:
DCR wrote:
CarmB wrote:
ICE tech is going to be phased out.


How many decades we talking here? If you look at other industrial advancements, the ICE tech is doing pretty good at keeping itself around with not much knocking it off the perch in the US at least. The infrastructure is gigantic, the business built around it is massive, and disrupting that is going to take a lot more than a few electric car companies.



Not to mention that ICE tech is still the best option for rapid refueling and long trips, which is a big deal everywhere west of the Mississippi River (and probably much of Canada too).

One thing I rarely see discussed is that current (and near term) BEV options tend to do best where mass transit (rail/bus/etc) also do well. Short commutes in high traffic areas. The more your city's density and mass transit resemble a place like New York, the more redundant BEVs are.

So BEVs are pinched on one end by the need for long range and quick refueling, and on the other by easier/cheaper/quicker mass transit options. Maybe the middle is broad enough, but I still think that barring massive battery/charging improvements, pure BEVs will be pigeonholed in the long term. And yes, we've been hearing promises of revolutionary breakthroughs in capacity and charging time for decades, but the reality is still proceeding much like any old tech (and batteries, regardless of chemistry improvements are old tech) - slow and incremental.

SC



There's no question that the pace at which the technology can be upgraded at the production level is tough to assess.Way back I can recall projections that fuel cell vehicles would arrive in 2008 which at the time was a few years away. I do think that the amount of effort going into addressing battery tech issues is significantly more than we saw 10, 15 years ago and that should impact the rate of progress. Even so the needle has moved significantly regarding range of late.

Range concern, I think, depends a lot on lifestyle. If you don't travel much beyond a vehicle's range round trip, it's not an issue. I would say in the past year I haven't fuelled up more than once in any given week. An electric with a 500-kilometre range would likely work just fine for the vast majority of my driving. Others would be in a different situation. Canada is a vast country, to be sure, but a lot of the population is relatively concentrated. In my part of the country, i.e. southern Ontario, driving distances are not that extreme.

I'm by no means suggesting that ICEs will be gone in the next three, four, five years. That said, as range improves and purchase cost lowers, electrics will be rendered viable to a broader range of consumers. For me the sweet spot would be a minimum 500-kilometre range coupled with a purchase premium of no more than let's say $7,000. At that point the numbers, for me, favour the electric.

I expect co-existence for a few years followed by ICEs fading. What I don't expect is that the transition would be motivated by a desire to save the planet. It has to just make sense case by case for consumers to switch. When that reaches critical mass is hard to determine but it appears to be where this is headed.

sadlerau
Profile for sadlerau
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 20:55
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The other thing about BEVs not mentioned as often recently, is the not insignificant issue of where all the extra electricity will be generated, if BEVs become a dominant force in day to day transport? Or has this issue been over-rated in the past??
THX17201
Profile for THX17201
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 20:58
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CarmB wrote:


There's no question that the pace at which the technology can be upgraded at the production level is tough to assess.Way back I can recall projections that fuel cell vehicles would arrive in 2008 which at the time was a few years away. I do think that the amount of effort going into addressing battery tech issues is significantly more than we saw 10, 15 years ago and that should impact the rate of progress. Even so the needle has moved significantly regarding range of late.

Range concern, I think, depends a lot on lifestyle. If you don't travel much beyond a vehicle's range round trip, it's not an issue. I would say in the past year I haven't fuelled up more than once in any given week. An electric with a 500-kilometre range would likely work just fine for the vast majority of my driving. Others would be in a different situation. Canada is a vast country, to be sure, but a lot of the population is relatively concentrated. In my part of the country, i.e. southern Ontario, driving distances are not that extreme.

I'm by no means suggesting that ICEs will be gone in the next three, four, five years. That said, as range improves and purchase cost lowers, electrics will be rendered viable to a broader range of consumers. For me the sweet spot would be a minimum 500-kilometre range coupled with a purchase premium of no more than let's say $7,000. At that point the numbers, for me, favour the electric.

I expect co-existence for a few years followed by ICEs fading. What I don't expect is that the transition would be motivated by a desire to save the planet. It has to just make sense case by case for consumers to switch. When that reaches critical mass is hard to determine but it appears to be where this is headed.



I think you are just as wrong about ICE engines as you were about the ILX...

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 22:49
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THX17201 wrote:
CarmB wrote:


There's no question that the pace at which the technology can be upgraded at the production level is tough to assess.Way back I can recall projections that fuel cell vehicles would arrive in 2008 which at the time was a few years away. I do think that the amount of effort going into addressing battery tech issues is significantly more than we saw 10, 15 years ago and that should impact the rate of progress. Even so the needle has moved significantly regarding range of late.

Range concern, I think, depends a lot on lifestyle. If you don't travel much beyond a vehicle's range round trip, it's not an issue. I would say in the past year I haven't fuelled up more than once in any given week. An electric with a 500-kilometre range would likely work just fine for the vast majority of my driving. Others would be in a different situation. Canada is a vast country, to be sure, but a lot of the population is relatively concentrated. In my part of the country, i.e. southern Ontario, driving distances are not that extreme.

I'm by no means suggesting that ICEs will be gone in the next three, four, five years. That said, as range improves and purchase cost lowers, electrics will be rendered viable to a broader range of consumers. For me the sweet spot would be a minimum 500-kilometre range coupled with a purchase premium of no more than let's say $7,000. At that point the numbers, for me, favour the electric.

I expect co-existence for a few years followed by ICEs fading. What I don't expect is that the transition would be motivated by a desire to save the planet. It has to just make sense case by case for consumers to switch. When that reaches critical mass is hard to determine but it appears to be where this is headed.



I think you are just as wrong about ICE engines as you were about the ILX...



Already models are coming to market in Canada with about a 400 km range for about $45,000. Those numbers don't work for me personally but they're much better than what was on offer a few short years ago. Unless BEV development stalls at this level, the direction this is going in certainly means BEVs are moving towards numbers that will appeal to a much broader segment. Add 100 km to that range and lower the cost by about $5,000 and this gets interesting. Conceivable? I would guess yes.

While mainstream automakers would prefer selling higher-maintenance ICEs, if viable electrics come to market, the pressure will be on to offer something along those lines or risk losing market share. It doesn't mean everybody will rush out to buy an electric but with each boost in range, market share for electrics will increase.

One good thing for me is that if I'm wrong, it'll take three or four years to figure out if that's the case. If there hasn't been any progress by about 2023, sure, electrics will not broaden they're appeal for quite some time. We shall see.


JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-14-2019 22:54
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CarmB wrote:
lexusgs wrote:
Hopefully it has or at least a version has a Internal Combustion engine so it can actually be bought, driven, and sold in all of the US instead of only being sell able in one part of one start or else it will be a total waste of money and resources.


That's an odd comment. Does Tesla sell it's non-ICE products in only one state?

Besides, really a pricey halo product isn't about putting one in every driveway. It's about PR for the brand and that means a product that the automotive press is impressed by.

ICE tech is going to be phased out. This is inevitable, not because we need to save the planet but because there are major advantages to driving vehicles with electric motors, however the power source is provided, compared to ICE tech. No oil changes, considerably lower ongoing fuel cost, no cooling system, no gear changing. Best of all, torque is 100 per cent at launch which apparently makes driving an electric, with good output, a real blast.

Acura/Honda would do well to start transitioning to electric propulsion because it's where this is headed no matter how aggressively the transition away from ICE tech is opposed by those who stand to lose profit if ICE tech loses ground.

Yet ICE tech will lose ground simply because it is inherently inferior from the perspective of the end user. It might be bad for automakers' bottom line that maintenance is cut significantly but that's not a bad thing if you're the consumer spending less on maintenance. And so on and so on. The positives are all in the favour of consumers at the expense of all those making money off the infrastructure built up around ICEs and that's why the transition has been proceeding glacially. But even still, there are just too many positives to be had from transitioning away from ICEs for it to not eventually happen.



I think the comment comes from the fact that there are currently very few pure BEV options outside of ZEV states (mandates/incentives) because BEVs are very difficult to build and sell profitably. Honda is one of the companies that only sells/leases BEVs in ZEV states. As I have said many, many times all along, when BEV tech becomes economically feasible for the manufacturers, it will have its day and truly take over at a massive scale.

It is my belief that this day will not come with current or near-term lithium ion battery chemistry/tech.

Also, BEVs are not "zero-maintenance" - that's a myth. They still have fluids (LOTS of coolant for one thing), tires, brakes, lighting elements, and wear items which require servicing just like any other vehicle.


CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-15-2019 05:43
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There are components that wear, absolutely. I certainly wasn't suggesting that a BEV would be like an electric lawnmower that you simply plug in and use for x number of years then discard. And where there's electronics in a vehicle there's always potential for issues to arise as many Tesla owners have discovered. But there are fewer systems requiring regular maintenance.

By the way, regarding what it would take for BEVs to become attractive to the average consumer, it varies from place to place. The US pays less for its gasoline than we do here in Canada and in Europe the cost is even higher still. Right now it's costing us around $1.20 to $1.30 a litre. That's roughly a range of $4.74 to $4.92 per US gallon. My car does roughly 8 litres per 100 km on account of I do a fair bit of quasi highway driving. Annually at 20,000 kilometres, I've used up between 1,600 and 1,800 litres. At the low end it's about $2,000 but I suspect it would end up somewhere higher than that. Some tankfuls I'm using up more than 8 litres per 100 km and certainly in winter it's more expensive. In any case, the point at which I personally would prefer the math of an electric option is going to be different than someone living in a warmer climate with access to cheaper gas. I suspect that where it gets interesting - the tipping point if you will - is round about 500km (310 miles) in range with a $6,000 purchase premium. You're talking break even about four years in so if you keep your car longer than that, the savings are substantial. Easily more than $1,000 a year.

Not sure what technology it will take to get us to the required numbers or when it can be achieved but that's when this turns in a big way. It looks viable to me within a five-year time frame and if at that point, which is when I'd be trading in the TLX, other manufacturers offer me an electric option, Acura would have to as well or lose me as a customer.





lexusgs
Profile for lexusgs
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-15-2019 12:13
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CarmB wrote:
lexusgs wrote:
Hopefully it has or at least a version has a Internal Combustion engine so it can actually be bought, driven, and sold in all of the US instead of only being sell able in one part of one start or else it will be a total waste of money and resources.


That's an odd comment. Does Tesla sell it's non-ICE products in only one state?

Besides, really a pricey halo product isn't about putting one in every driveway. It's about PR for the brand and that means a product that the automotive press is impressed by.

ICE tech is going to be phased out. This is inevitable, not because we need to save the planet but because there are major advantages to driving vehicles with electric motors, however the power source is provided, compared to ICE tech. No oil changes, considerably lower ongoing fuel cost, no cooling system, no gear changing. Best of all, torque is 100 per cent at launch which apparently makes driving an electric, with good output, a real blast.

Acura/Honda would do well to start transitioning to electric propulsion because it's where this is headed no matter how aggressively the transition away from ICE tech is opposed by those who stand to lose profit if ICE tech loses ground.

Yet ICE tech will lose ground simply because it is inherently inferior from the perspective of the end user. It might be bad for automakers' bottom line that maintenance is cut significantly but that's not a bad thing if you're the consumer spending less on maintenance. And so on and so on. The positives are all in the favour of consumers at the expense of all those making money off the infrastructure built up around ICEs and that's why the transition has been proceeding glacially. But even still, there are just too many positives to be had from transitioning away from ICEs for it to not eventually happen.


The rumors for this vehicle was it will be a FCEV like the FCX Clarity. FCEV can only really be bought, driven, and owned in the Southern part of one State in the US and Japan so it will be a total waste of money if they made it FCEV only. After explaining this there is now a suggestion it may possibly also be a BEV and HEV. I am suspicious of this as I doubt Honda would engineer and make 3 versions of this vehicle and knowing Honda I would not be surprised at all if they did in fact only engineer this new vehicle to be a FCEV only which will make it a total waste of time and money and another stupid decision.

BEV have a lot of issues too like range, limited charging networks/facilities, cold weather performance, maintenance/repairs(Teslas cost a fortune to work on, insurance is higher on them) so doing just FCEV and BEV would not be much of a improvement as it will still have limited appeal/market will not sell anywhere near as much as a ICE only or BEV as Acura does not have the green/tech image of Tesla where people ignore the compromises, Tesla sales are also plummeting, other BEV's sell in very low numbers with little interest.

It would cost a lot of money and take some major changes to engineer a car that was designed as a FCEV or BEV to also accept a IC engine because the platforms/chassis for those electric vehicles are generally designed around the enormous batteries/electric motors first and not designed to just drop a IC engine in them which gives me more doubt they even could offer a IC engine unless this is some unique design from the get go designed to accept a IC engine.

ICE tech is not being phased out nor is it inferior, ICE is still by far the most popular type of power plant in vehicles today, it makes up around 99% cars on the road. The fact that you can put 12-15 or so gallons of a pretty cheap fuel into large heavy vehicles and travel hundreds of miles on that in comfort and easily re fuel it in less then 5 min and travel hundreds of miles again can not be ignored, the established gasoline infrastructure around the world shows the IC engine is not going anywhere for a very long time. There is no rush or big market for electric vehicles outside some parts of California for one brand in the US, they are still rare and there are still very few models to choose from because there is no real demand for them in the US. I rarely see them on the road, there is not a single one in my large neighborhood.

ICE is still evolving, fuel economy and performance is still improving and still have the least compromises when it comes to ownership, cost, weight, complexity, etc. Tesla's cost a fortune to work on/repair, there are plenty of complaints about that, they cost of lot to insure too. The cost of a battery failing in a electric will offset by far the cost of oil changes, fuel, etc. Electrics also make poor sports/performance cars, yes they can be decent drag cars for a couple runs and then they start getting really hot and losing a lot of power, they are not suited for racetracks/endurance racing or even longer high speed runs off tracks. The tech and charging infrastructure is simply not there for electrics to gain any real popularity in the US, their long trip compromises make them poor choices for the US market and some others for the majority of buyers. I don't see any real evidence electrics are going to gain much popularity in the near future in the US nor do I see where FCEV's will gain any real popularity in the next 10+ years unless someone really wants to spend a ton of money on infrastructure for them and there is simply no demand for that.




GoFaster
Profile for GoFaster
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-15-2019 13:13
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I get ads for Prius battery replacements for $995 on TOV. That is pretty resonable considering I had a $3K+ transmission failure on an Accord at 115,000 miles. Absolutely battery tech is in a quickly evolving state, but you must remember that customer demand means little, what matters is politicians mandates. Forget thinking what is better, the politicians are deciding the market, period. It's central planning. Look at how many design decisions are already decided for car companies.

Soon you won't be able to go into cities and burn fossil fuels. The ICE Age is coming to an end. Funny. The battle is not which is better. Irrelevant. The battle is who can do what is allowed best.

CarmB
Profile for CarmB
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-15-2019 16:38
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GoFaster wrote:
I get ads for Prius battery replacements for $995 on TOV. That is pretty resonable considering I had a $3K+ transmission failure on an Accord at 115,000 miles. Absolutely battery tech is in a quickly evolving state, but you must remember that customer demand means little, what matters is politicians mandates. Forget thinking what is better, the politicians are deciding the market, period. It's central planning. Look at how many design decisions are already decided for car companies.

Soon you won't be able to go into cities and burn fossil fuels. The ICE Age is coming to an end. Funny. The battle is not which is better. Irrelevant. The battle is who can do what is allowed best.



I disagree in that the resulting product has to make sense to the purchaser for any emerging technology to take off. Only if consumers perceive an advantage to switching will it happen in significant numbers. To happen quickly enough to help with climate change it has to be about consumers embracing greener tech and automakers responding by supplying it. Government action is far from a certainty and besides, the less this is imposed on consumers the quicker and easier the transition will be.

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: New Acura Sedan coming to Pebble Beach    (Score: 1, Normal) 04-15-2019 23:40
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GoFaster wrote:
I get ads for Prius battery replacements for $995 on TOV. That is pretty resonable considering I had a $3K+ transmission failure on an Accord at 115,000 miles. Absolutely battery tech is in a quickly evolving state, but you must remember that customer demand means little, what matters is politicians mandates. Forget thinking what is better, the politicians are deciding the market, period. It's central planning. Look at how many design decisions are already decided for car companies.

Soon you won't be able to go into cities and burn fossil fuels. The ICE Age is coming to an end. Funny. The battle is not which is better. Irrelevant. The battle is who can do what is allowed best.



That ‘reasonable’ Prius battery is ~1.3kWh. Pure BEVs (with useful range) use batteries >40x larger than that


 
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